PEI Faculty Seminar Series Video: Spatio-temporal Dynamics of Childhood Infectious Disease

Igor Heifetz ・ High Meadows Environmental Institute

“Spatio-temporal Dynamics of Childhood Infectious Disease: Predictability and the Impact of Vaccination” by Bryan Grenfell, Kathryn Briger and Sarah Fenton Professor of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology and Public Affairs, Woodrow Wilson School.

Violent epidemics of childhood infections such as measles provide a particularly clear illustration of oscillatory ‘predator-prey’ dynamics. We discuss limits on the predictability of these systems, both in the era before vaccination and at present, where vaccine hesitancy limits the effectiveness of vaccination programs in many countries. We also discuss the impact of viral evolution on predictability and the design of vaccination programs, with particular reference to influenza and rotavirus.