Ben Buchovecky ’23, Geosciences

Ben Buchovecky ’23

Major

Geosciences

Project Title

Potential Predictability of the Spring Bloom in the Southern Ocean Sea-Ice Zone

Presentation Link

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I studied the predictability of the spring phytoplankton bloom in the Southern Ocean. Each spring, phytoplankton grow rapidly along the edge of retreating sea ice and provide a crucial food source for marine organisms that helps sustain the Southern Ocean ecosystem. Our goal was to determine if these blooms could be predicted using an Earth system model. Using data from model simulations, I analyzed 12 key variables across six regions, with net primary production (NPP) as the main indicator for phytoplankton blooms. To quantify each variable’s predictability, I computed a unique metric using many slightly different model simulations to provide insight into the variable’s maximum possible predictability. I found that it is possible to make a skillful prediction of NPP approximately one year in advance for all Southern Ocean regions except the Ross Sea. Moreover, I proposed a mechanism for describing how sea-ice predictability propagates into biogeochemical predictability with a time lag. Through this internship, I gained valuable experience using the software Python for data analysis and I deepened my understanding of Earth system modeling and oceanography. This amazing opportunity reinforced my desire to pursue independent research in oceanography.