Projecting Flooding by Bringing the Physical Processes Back in the Flood Frequency Analysis

 

Gabriele Villarini, professor of civil and environmental engineering and the High Meadows Environmental Institute, presented “Projecting Flooding by Bringing the Physical Processes Back in the Flood Frequency Analysis.” Villarini was the third speaker in the spring 2024 HMEI Faculty Seminar Series.

The frequency and intensity of flooding and its associated risks have changed in recent decades across different parts of the contiguous United States, with climate change acting as a risk multiplier. Despite those changes, the standard practice in the design of our physical infrastructure assumes stationarity and implies that which has been experienced in the past will manifest itself again in the future. Professor Villarini discussed work he is doing to incorporate observed changes in the historical discharge records and other flooding agents to describe flood records more accurately and to incorporate such data along with climate model outputs to enhance projections and planning. He seeks to learn from the past and to then use that information to provide better insights into future changes in flooding, with an ultimate goal of providing a scientific basis for the engineering design of flood mitigation alternatives and the management of water resources.

Projecting Flooding by Bringing the Physical Processes Back in the Flood Frequency Analysis

Publish Date

April 2, 2024

Presenter(s)

Gabriele Villarini

Link to Video

https://youtu.be/maBve_xdfU8

Video Length

55:33

 

Gabriele Villarini, professor of civil and environmental engineering and the High Meadows Environmental Institute, presented “Projecting Flooding by Bringing the Physical Processes Back in the Flood Frequency Analysis.” Villarini was the third speaker in the spring 2024 HMEI Faculty Seminar Series.

The frequency and intensity of flooding and its associated risks have changed in recent decades across different parts of the contiguous United States, with climate change acting as a risk multiplier. Despite those changes, the standard practice in the design of our physical infrastructure assumes stationarity and implies that which has been experienced in the past will manifest itself again in the future. Professor Villarini discussed work he is doing to incorporate observed changes in the historical discharge records and other flooding agents to describe flood records more accurately and to incorporate such data along with climate model outputs to enhance projections and planning. He seeks to learn from the past and to then use that information to provide better insights into future changes in flooding, with an ultimate goal of providing a scientific basis for the engineering design of flood mitigation alternatives and the management of water resources.